Now that we are ¾'s of the way thru the NFL season, you've probably used the bulk of available high producing "studs" the maximum two times that PayTheFan.com allows. Lucky for you, trends regarding defensive performance have been set and can be relied upon as much as ever. Meaning, when in doubt and trying to decide who to start, play players on teams who match up against poor defense units like these:
St. Louis D vs. Chicago: The Rams give up the most points in the NFL per game (31.7). Kyle Orton and Matt Forte look strong here, as does TE Greg Olsen.
Detroit D vs. Tampa Bay: The Lions give up the second most points in the NFL per game (30.8). Jeff "efficiency isn't sexy" Garcia has had four straight games of 225+ passing yards and is familiar with the Lions pseudo Cover Two, making Antonio Bryant a solid WR play. Warrick Dunn becomes very attractive considering the Lion gave up 120+ and a TD to both Panthers RB's last week.
Bills D vs. Kansas City: During their four game losing streak, the Bills are giving up 25 points per game. QB Tyler Thigpen has proven himself as a top five fantasy QB over the last month and Tony G and Dwayne Bowe have combined for 6 TD over that span. Larry Johnson looks ready to roll.
The guys over at MRN Radio were as high as 4th place overall with a few weeks to go, but ultimately finished just outside the money (23rd overall). Oh well, they had a great run and a great time and will be back next year. Listen to the clip below.
It has come down to this. It looks like three for the overall grand prize. But if you are fourth or fifth or a little bit farther back, don't lose hope. You never know what can happen in this last race.
In the first group, I am going to have to start the 17 in one spot. Not only because he is one of the only drivers left, but because he is defending champ at this track and he drives a Ford, which has a pretty good history here. I think the Busch brothers will finish well, along with the 11 and the Hendrick guys. I like the 29 too.
In the second group, if I had a Roush driver I would start him here or plug them in both spots. The 5, 41, 42, and 43 could get you quality points, if you are out of Team Roush starts this weekend.
In the final group, I really like the 28, 44, and Allmendinger. This could be where everything is made or broken this weekend, so keep a keen eye on practice and qualifying. For a dark horse, take a look at the 77.
This has been a fantastic season and it looks like it is going to come down to the last lap to figure out the winners. Good luck to everyone and I will see you guys at the track.
Well here we are folks, the final weekend of the season. Right now, it looks like a three horse race out there for the grand prize. Loose off from right down the road in Fountain Inn, Sc is leading the way, with Kid Nascar and Gleason Racing close behind. This is going to be an amazing finish. Congratulations to you three and to all of you who have put in a good showing this season. We look forward to bringing you another exciting Pay the Fan fantasy race season next year. The race is even tighter in the Chase game, where some twenty teams are within a hundred points of first place.
In the "A" group this weekend, you have to look at the Roush cars hard in this race. A car from the Roush stable has won the season ending race here four years in a row and five out of six. So I hope you guys saved a start for the 99 or the 17 to end the season on. The 2 and the 1 should finish well, along with the 11.
In the "B" group this weekend, once again, if you have starts saved up for the 26, 6, or 16, go ahead and plug them in. I also like the 42 and 5 in this spot. The 41 and the 43 could be your dark horses in this group.
In the "C" group, I like Allmendinger to finish the season on a high note. Keep an eye on the 22, 44, and the 66. For dark horses, take a look at how Keselowski and the 01 are running.
It has been another exciting year and I wish all of you the best of luck in this final race. We look forward to seeing you again next season, and make sure to tune at 3:00 PM sharp on ABC.
You start a QB/WR tandem in hopes of amplifying the effects of a successful PayTheFan.com lineup choice. For every week it works and you look like a genius there is inevitably a week where it blows up in your face, possibly losing the game because of it. So which of the two is the more successful approach? Let's look at the cold, heartless historical data.
From weeks two thru four if you started the tandem of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall you looked pretty smart. In those three games Cutler averaged 325 passing yards and almost two TD per game while Marshall averaged 10 catches, 132 yards and a TD per game.
But if you used the same approach in weeks five thru seven you were probably wishing you hadn't as Cutler averaged a measly 195 yards and barely a TD per game. Marshall had his roughest stretch of the year also, averaging 6 catches for 66 yards per game and scoring zero TD.
Talk about your ultimate risk vs. reward scenario. So which choice is better? As long as you have faith in the match-up and can look yourself in the mirror after a possibly rough week, the "Double Tud" is the way to go.
Congratulations to Bruce Button who captured the $10k in week 10. Bruce caught and passed the leaders with his QB/WR combo on MNF. Well done Bruce! The best of luck this weekend to the leaders in our racing contest as this is the last weekend before crowning a champion.
Let's get to some picks for week 11.
QB - Peyton Manning is playing well and I would use him at home this weekend against Houston. I also like Matt Ryan of the Falcons as Denver pays a visit and my third choice is Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay as the Packers host the Bears and there soft secondary.
RB - DeAngelo Williams of the Panthers is my top choice against Detroit. I also like Brian Westbrook against Cincy and Michael Turner of the Falcons against Denver.
WR - Muhsin Muhammad or Steve Smith of Carolina against Detroit should have big games. I also like either Reggie Wayne or Marvin Harrison against Houston. My third choice is Roddy White of Atlanta.
TE - Dallas Clark and Tony Gonzalez are my top choices. If you have Jason Whitten left and Romo plays I would use him.
K - Rob Birronas of Tennessee and Jason Elam of Atlanta are my top choices.
Team Defense - The Carolina Panthers against Detroit or the Dolphins against Oakland. Either defense should have good games.
Good morning people. I hope everyone is razor sharp and ready for the next two weeks. We are going to be crowing a champion here shortly.
In the first group, you can't go wrong with the 48 if you still have him. And I believe all of the Childress cars will have good outings. I think you could see the 07, 31, and the 29 finish in the top ten. The 17 runs really well here. For my dark horse pick, I am going to roll with the 1 car this weekend. He is coming off back to back top ten finishes here in Phoenix, so I will definitely look to slide him into one of my starting positions.
In the second group, it is really getting tight for starts in this group. I like the 16, 12, 88, you know, the usual suspects. But most of us are out of those starts. So this weekend, I will be looking toward the 43, 42, 38, and possibly the 41 to help me here. Good luck in this grouping guys and gals, this is a tough spot the next two weeks.
In the last group, I like Allmendinger and the 44. I like the 15 and the 77. This is a tough one to call as well, as all the potential quality starts are drying up. Check out Marcos Ambrose if you are looking for someone under the radar. He could help in a pinch.
Have a good one everybody and I will see you at the track.
Hello everyone and welcome to Phoenix. Here it is. The next to the last race. I hope you have thought very carefully about how you will play these next two weeks. Because some of you will be receiving a nice paycheck in the near future if your strategy pays off. Let's get to the action.
In the "A" group this weekend, if you have a start for the 48 stashed away, go ahead and use it here. He has been nothing short of fantastic at this track, and I look for him to bounce back this week from his so-so weekend at Texas. The 11 and the 17 should have good finishes. And I definitely think the 07 will be at the front when the checkered flag drops.
In the "B" group, this group is very tricky this week and the next. The starts have dwindled for the teams that have shown the most promise this year. So who do we go with? I know that I will start the 5 in one of my spots this weekend. The 43, 42, and the 12 will get consideration. If you are looking for a dark horse as I know a lot of us are, make note of how the 38 is running in practice. He came out of here with a 15th place finish back in April.
In the "C" group, I would definitely plug in the 44 or the 28 if you still have starts for those guys. The 15 and the 55 could score solid finishes for you as well. For a dark horse in this group, keep an eye on the 77. He had a top twenty finish here in April.
Good luck everyone and I will see you Sunday at 3:00 EST on ABC.
Congratulations to Steve Dimos of Lagrange, Indiana for his win in week 9. Steve's .1 win was the closet margin of victory ever at Pay the Fan in our football contest. Well done Steve and I am sure the $10k will come in handy.
Let's get to some picks for week 10.
QB - There are a couple of good match ups this weekend. I like Kurt Warner as the Cardinals host the 49ers on MNF. If you don't have Kurt left as a choice you can play either Drew Brees or Phillip Rivers.
RB - I like Michael Turner of the Falcons, Ronnie Brown of the Dolphins, or LT as the Chargers host the Chiefs.
WR - Roddy White as the Falcons host the Saints is my top choice. I also like Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals and Steve Smith as the Panthers travel to Oakland.
TE - Tony Gonzalez of the Chiefs or Antonio Gates of the Chargers.
K - I like Neil Rackers from Arizona on MNF and David Ackers of the Eagles as they host the Giants in a potential war.
Defense - The Tennessee Titans as they travel to Chicago and the Miami Dolphins at home against Seattle.
Has there been a more inconsistent starting fantasy position in 2008 than the tight end? According to PayTheFan.com's scoring totals after nine weeks, only five tight ends have eclipsed the 80 point barrier (Jason Witten, Owen Daniels, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and Chris Cooley in that order) with the next closest TE (Dallas Clark)14 points behind showing you how difficult it has been to pick a high scoring TE with any consistency.
At first it was as simple as picking Jason Witten who averaged 14.74 points per week thru five games. Since then he has averaged just 4.05 in four games being outscored by Visanthe Shiancoe (6.3 PPG) over that span. The hottest player over the last month? Owen Daniels who is averaging 13.25 points despite inconsistency to both Texans QB's.
So where can PayTheFan.com players turn this week for a solid play? How about Tony Gonzalez vs. the Chargers. Over the last eight games against them, Gonzalez has averaged almost eight catches and 100+ yards per game. Plus he has developed chemistry over the last three weeks with new QB Tyler Thigpen averaging over six catches and 79.3 yards per game.
Congratulations to Adam Grusin from Birmingham, Alabama for taking 1st place in week 8. Well done Adam! The PTF man is in Birmingham to present the $10k to Adam. If you are ever in Birmingham Adam works at Bottega Restaurant and they serve some mighty fine Italian cuisine with a southern flare.
Let's get to some picks.
QB - The matchups I like this weekend are Cardinals/Rams, Lions/Bears and the Dolphins/Broncos for offensive production. My first choice at QB is Kurt Warner as he returns to familiar surroundings in St. Louis. I also like Jay Cutler against Miami and also Kyle Orton as the Bears host Detroit.
RB - Matt Forte of the Bears against the Lions should have a big day. My second choice is Michael Turner of Atlanta as the Falcons visit the Raiders. My sleeper RB pick this weekend (if he starts) is Ryan Torain of Denver. Ryan was injured in pre-season and reminds everyone of Terrell Davis. If he is active start him.
WR - Lee Evans of Buffalo and either of the two receivers from Arizona as the Cardinals will put some points on the board. I also like Donnie Avery of the Rams as he is hot right now.
TE - Kellen Winslow of the Browns is my choice as I look for him to have a big game versus the Ravens.
K - I like John Carney of the Giants as they host the Cowboys and I look for Carney to get a lot of work this weekend.
Wow...I have what I thought was a heck of a week, and I end up tied for 130th place. You guys are good!! At least I got into DJ's lead a little.
In the first group this week, I guess I don't have to tell you guys something as obvious as start the 48 and the 99 if you are able. But for most of us including myself, we do not have that luxury. So this week, I am going to plug the 18 into one of my spots. Not only because I think he will finish well, but also because I have to. I have 3 starts remaining for the 18, so I have to plug him into one of my spots for the last three weeks. So any of you who have drivers with three starts left, make sure you plug that driver in this week and the following two. Because if you don't, you are going to be stuck with a start for a driver and no place to put it at Homestead. But back to the picks. I like all the Gibbs cars here, as well as the RCR cars. Start 'em if you got 'em!!
In the second group, the Roush cars and the Evernham cars should be no brainers in this spot. The 88 and 12 should be good. And for my dark horses in this group, look for the 43, 7, and possibly the 38.
In the last group, I will probably fire my last 83 bullet, along with the 22. Allmendinger and the 28 should be pretty good. And if we finally get a qualifying run in without the rain coming, keep an eye out for Logano and Keselowski. I know those two fellas will have some good equipment, provided they qualify for the race.
Good luck ladies and gentlemen and I will see you at the track.
Here it is everyone...the final three weeks of the season. We have a team out of South Carolina leading the whole show, with two teams from Kansas and Illinois right on his heels. We have teams from North Carolina, Texas, New York, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Oregon not far behind. I am glad to see we have players from all across this great country playing Pay the Fan. Now lets see who can win it all.
In the "A" group this weekend, if you still have some starts left for the 48 or the 99, now would be a good time to use them. These guys are really putting on a show to end the season. The 17 and the 11 are good plays here, and I really like the RCR cars both here and at Phoenix next weekend.
In the "B" group, I like the Roush cars here, so if you have some starts left for the 16, 6, or the 26, take a look at plugging those guys in here. The 12 should run pretty well, along with the 19 and the 8. For my dark horse, I am looking at plugging the 5 in one of my starting positions.
In the "C" group, I like Allmendinger and the 83 this week. They will give you quality points here in Texas. I also am leaning toward the 28 and the 15. The 66 and the 77 are worth a second look as well.
Good luck to everyone and I will see you at 3:00 PM EST sharp on ABC.
Kurt Warner will throw for 300+ yards and 2 TD this Sunday vs. the Rams. Here's why:
- The Rams are giving up 28.7 points per game (3rd worst in the NFL) and are 6th worst against the pass giving up 233 passing yards per game.
- Warner is second in passing yards per game (287) only to Drew Brees (314) and attempts more passes per game than any QB in the NFL with 38.1.
- In his last four starts vs. the Rams, Warner has averaged 292 yards passing per game and just under two TD per game (1.75).
- Steve Breaston has emerged as a #3 wide receiver that you can start in fantasy, increasing Warner's value further. The injury to Anquan Boldin forced Breaston to be relied upon more but he was producing even with Boldin in the lineup, accumulating a career high 9 catches for 122 yards vs. the Jets in the game where Boldin was hurt at the end. Since, he's averaged 8 catches and 90 yards in three games with one TD.
The final factor? The return to St. Louis where he was a vital cog in "The Greatest Show on Turf" and had some pf the single most productive seasons an NFL QB has ever had.
If he's not motivated to come back and produce at a high level, when would he ever be?
I picked up a little ground on DJ last week as I fired my last 48 bullet at him. Now I believe there are more than a few of us who are out of starts for the hottest driver on the circuit, so we will need to find a different combination to gain ground.
In the first group here in Atlanta, it is really going to be hard to pick a driver that does not have a chance to finish well out of this group. The Gibbs, Hendrick, and Roush teams all have remarkable records at this track. The RCR cars usually finish in the top 10. So that is 10 out of your 12 cars in this group that have a more than reasonable shot to finish near the front. My best advice for you guys from here on out is to look to the future to help you in the present. You may have a couple drivers like the 07 and 29 who may not contend for the win, but they will get you a quality top 10 finish here and you could plug in someone else later. Its all about the matchups now. I have those two guys penciled in right now, with the 18 being another possibility. Now I just have to look ahead, and see which matchups work out the best.
In the second group, I am looking for the 88 and the 6 to make some noise. I like the 42 and the 43. And for my dark horse in this group, how about the 41.
In the last group, if Logano makes the race, I really think he can get a good finish. The Gibbs cars have always done a good job here, and if he is the next in line of successful drivers for that team, I can see no better place for him to make a big splash. The 83 should run well. I like the 44 in this spot. Allmendinger will run well. I like the 66, and possibly the 15 and 77.
Have a good weekend everyone and I will see you at the track.
